Weekly Survival, is it really about RNG?

Let’s talk about the WWCD format introduced during PGI.S.

With almost every tournament played under SUPER rule set during the last two years, it has been pretty surprising to see a “winner takes all”, also known as WWCD format, during PGI.S.

Even if this format can be considered refreshing, it has generated a lot of controversy across the professional scene. This format is considered RNG dependent, with little reward for adaptability and fighting abilities, which are supposed to be the core of the competitive play.

This entire matter could have stopped here. However, ESL just announced a new circuit for 2021, ESL Masters, which will bring back the format in Europe.

In this article, we’ll take a deeper look at games played under this rule and figure out to what extent complaints are justified. This study is based on 69 games played from February 5th to March 16th.

Methodology

To determine whether RNG plays an important role or not, we will go through the following data:

• How often the winning team was in circles 6, 7, and 8 as it pops: How important is it to have favorable circles in the late-game?
• How often the winning team got into the late-game from a compound: How often have people been gifted?
• How many kills the winning team had at the start of phase 7: how often the winning team has won its game through active fighting?

For every item, I’ll give you my opinion and my interpretation.

Circles

The winning team has been, on average :

• In the 6th circle as it pops 74% of the time,
• In the 7th circle 75% of the time,
• In the 8th circle 81% of the time.

Even if I don’t have data for games played under the SUPER ruleset, it makes sense that teams who have to fight their way in are not only likely to lose players doing so but also to have very little control even if they come off victorious of their fights.

In other words, in a traditional game, your position entering the late-game often determines if you’re playing for kill points or the win, and in a format where only the victory is valuable, having positive shifts and a clear winning-condition seem more than necessary in the majority of the games.

Compounds

I’ve considered teams to be in a compound when their position has guaranteed them an entry point which didn’t require any fight in the 6th circle.

It happened 50% of the time.

I’m pretty surprised by this one because it proves that playing strictly for a position isn’t necessarily your best option. Maneuvering around thanks to an adaptive and flexible play style and having a well-worked game plan can provide opportunities.

This stat is necessarily related to the previous one. However, when I hear the word compound, I hear “security” and “wait and see”. It means that if you have to get out before the late-game, you’re often in a position where you don’t have information, you don’t have control, and you’re promised to certain death or at a complex game at least. That’s something you can play with to get to have more favorable situations.

Kills

On average, the winning team gets 40% of its kill points before the 22 minutes and 30 seconds (start of phase 6) mark.

Once again, I was pretty surprised here. I had the feeling that most winning teams used to clear few players still alive during the very late game. It sounds like you can’t get to a situation you can win the game without going through shooting before: either to apply pressure or clear spaces.

Conclusion

I will let each person makes her own opinion about the WWCD format. However, numbers prove that, besides the circle RNG inherent to every PUBG game, the typical victory implies proactivity (the winning team has more than ten kills per game on average, a similar average to Weekly Finals games).

I feel that, overall, most teams have passively adapted their gameplay, and it created a dynamic where last circles are more stacked than usual, which makes it impossible to fight your way in without suffering losses in the late-game. Indeed, it’s hard to be proactive without taking risks in such a lobby. However, It might be a way (and it got proved by several teams) to multiply your game-winning opportunities in the long term.

It’s not the most popular opinion, but I hope ESL will maintain the format despite claims. I might change my opinion after experiencing stress and frustration myself. However, I believe it’s healthy overall to force teams to adapt to different rules throughout a tournament, which is one of the principal skills you should have on PUBG.

Maxime “Znooper” GONY